Episode 176 - Will Red Meat Prices Crash Or Hold? With expert analyst, Simon Quilty

Australian cattle and lamb markets are at a tipping point. Prices have surged to record highs, but according to leading analyst Simon Quilty, we’re about to hit what he calls “unsustainable pricing.”  

Bringing over 30 years of hard-won market insight to the table, Simon Quilty has worked with top firms including Louis Dreyfus, ConAgra, DR Johnston, and FC Stone. Today, he helps large financial institutions and farmers alike make sense of the complex forces shaping the red meat sector.  

In this episode, Simon delivers a no-nonsense forecast: cattle rallying up to 750c/kg before falling back to a new norm around 550… lambs peaking at 1350c/kg before settling at 950. These aren’t guesses. They’re grounded in global supply shocks, America’s herd liquidation, and the structural rebuild now underway in Australia.  

We cut straight into the forces driving this market, including: 

• why America’s drought and Trump’s tariffs are reshaping global trade in our favour; 

• how the mass liquidation of the southern Angus herd has set the stage for a desperate chase for quality cattle; 

• the shift from wool into meat sheep and the rise of self-shedding breeds; and 

• how new global demand from China shutting out US beef to the Middle East’s booming chilled carcass trade is creating both opportunity and protection against future price crashes. 

For producers, this conversation is a wake-up call. The highs won’t last forever. But there is a clear path forward. One built on understanding the new norms, preparing for volatility, and making confident decisions in a transformed market.  

Simon Quilty’s analysis has never been more relevant. If you want to know where livestock pricing is really headed and how to position your business, this is essential listening. 

👉 You can learn more about Simon and Global AgriTrends at www.agritrends.com 

A huge thanks to Simon for his time, his candour, and his ongoing commitment to helping livestock producers navigate these markets with clarity and confidence. Simon, your insights are invaluable and we’re grateful to have your voice guiding us through such a pivotal moment for the red meat sector. 

Here’s to strong seasons ahead. 

Hutch & The Farm Owners Academy Team